Should try-catch be avoided for known cases

I have a case which I know will happen but very scarce. For example in every 10 thousand times the code runs, this might happen once.

I can check for this case by a simple if but this if will run many times with no use.

On the other hand I can place the code in try-catch block and when that special case happens I do what is needed to recover.

The question is which one is better? I know that generally speaking try-catch should not be used for known cases because of the overhead issue and also the application logic should not rely on catch code, but running an if multiple times will have more performance issue. I have tested this using this small test code:

static void Main(string[] args)
{
    Stopwatch sc = new Stopwatch();
    var list = new List<int>();
    var rnd = new Random();
    for (int i = 0; i < 100000000; i++)
    {
        list.Add(rnd.Next());
    }

    sc.Start();
    DoWithIf(list);
    sc.Stop();
    Console.WriteLine($"Done with IFs in {sc.ElapsedMilliseconds} milliseconds");
    sc.Restart();
    DoWithTryCatch(list);
    sc.Stop();
    Console.WriteLine($"Done with TRY-CATCH in {sc.ElapsedMilliseconds} milliseconds");
    Console.ReadKey();
}

private static int[] DoWithTryCatch(List<int> list)
{
    var res = new int[list.Count ];
    try
    {
        for (int i = 0; i < list.Count; i++)
        {
            res[i] = list[i];
        }
        return res;
    }
    catch
    {
        return res;
    }
}

private static int[] DoWithIf(List<int> list)
{
    var res = new int[list.Count - 1];
    for (int i = 0; i < list.Count; i++)
    {
        if (i < res.Length)
            res[i] = list[i];
    }
    return res;
}

This code simply copies a lot of numbers to an array with not enough size. In my machine checking array bounds each time takes around 210 milliseconds to run while using try-catch that will hit catch once runs in around 190 milliseconds.

Also if you think it depends on the case my case is that I get push notifications in an app and will check if I have the topic of the message. If not I will get and store the topic information for next messages. There are many messages in few topics.